StrategicEmbrace

Part-II Strategic Embrace: Amplifying Impact in Crucial Areas for Sustainable Growth

BALANCED DEVELOPMENT – FOCUS ON LESS DEVELOPED REGIONS
Balanced regional development is crucial for a country’s progress. The goal is to mitigate disparities in economic, social, and infrastructure development. In Pakistan socio-economic inequalities exist not only among different regions but also in different districts of the same region. Azad Jammu & Kashmir (AJ&K) and Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) are special regions. Most of the areas of these regions are characterized less developed in terms of lower degree infrastructural advancement, limited access/connectivity and poor socioeconomic indicators. Additionally, the seven merged districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) also exhibit higher poverty incidence44 and lag behind in socio-economic development. The 13th Five-year plan intends to increase capacities of the governments of special areas for generating their own resources, strengthening institutions, creating effective partnership with nongovernmental development partners, encouraging community driven development, enhancing the element of public-private partnership, and delegating more administrative & financial powers. Investment in key sectors and community engagement are crucial for promoting balanced and inclusive development. The plan envisages priority development areas for targeted investment to generate revenues and overall socio-economic development.

Review of Last Five Years 2018-23
During 2018-23, the prime objective was to accelerate development process in special areas. Through federal PSDP, funds in the form of block allocations were provided and programs were launched in collaboration with special areas governments. An amount of Rs 534 billion was released against allocation of Rs428 billion, through federal PSDP for AJ&K, GB and merged districts. During the period under review, the impact of natural disasters has been huge in terms of damage to public and community infrastructure, and private properties. As per Economic Survey estimates total damages exceed Rs 8 billion, and total economic losses stand at Rs 12.8 billion in special regions (Economic Survey, 2022-23). The major achievements of the Plan are as under:

  •  The major achievements in AJ&K include, but not limited to; construction of 47 km major roads, 1,017 km link roads, 19 flood protection dykes, 2,619 meter RCC bridges, 551 meter suspension bridges, 02 sports stadiums, 01 sport complex. In education, 187 primary, 76 middle, 79 higher secondary schools buildings, 4 colleges and one Cadet College were constructed. In health, DHQ hospital at Kotli, Bhimber and Mirpur, Kashmir Institute of Cardiology (KIC) Mirpur upgraded and 150 bedded DHQ Hospital Palandri, 200 bedded General Hospital Rawalakot were constructed. Hydel power generation 25.5 MW and feasibility studies of 50 MW conducted. 42 tourist sites developed and feasibility study of tourism corridor conducted. Interest free loans to 102,257 persons through Akhuwat, and skill training to 3000 homebased workers were provided.
  • Through multisectoral ADP in Gilgit Baltistan, the major achievement includes construction of 5,900 km of shingle roads, 594 bridges of all types, 22 water supply schemes, 3 sanitation schemes have been completed. Furthermore, Rescues1122 service in all 10 districts of GB have been established. In education sector, 61 projects of new schools/colleges/ libraries have been completed and 102 educational institutions have been upgraded. 7 skill development centres were established and skill trainings to 1300 individuals were imparted. 26 health facilities have been established/upgraded. Furthermore, in order to improve the execution of the development portfolio, NEC approved direct release of funds to Gilgit Baltistan, and the area government will execute these projects through concerned departments.
  •  After merger of Ex-FATA with province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, a ten-year (2018- 2028) plan was initiated. The first phase of programme (AIP-I) has been completed while the 2nd Phase AIP-II is underway. Through ADP and AIP , 318 km of rural roads, 07 bridges, 101 DWSS and 162 BHUs/RHC have been completed/rehabilitated. 19 rescue-1122 stations have been operationalized. In education sector, the missing infrastructure facilities were provided /rehabilitated i.e. 1,510 classrooms constructed, 2,248 Schools provided drinking water facilities, 1,985 play grounds and 101 IT Labs were renovated. In energy sector, 03 grid stations upgraded from 66 KV to 132 kV, 187 off grid villages were provided electrification. In industries sector, 03 Small industrial estates have been planned and work on Mohmand Marble City is in progress. Further skill trainings have been provided to 1,200 individuals.
  • The development efforts were supplemented by the non-government organizations i.e. Aga Khan Development Network (AKDN) and National Rural Support Programme (NRSP). These organizations, in collaboration with respective area governments have implemented development projects for provision of technical and vocational skills to thousands of GB and Chitral youth. Moreover, skills trainings were imparted to teachers and health workers. 

Table-A PSDP ALLOCATIONS & UTILIZATION (FY 2018-23)

13th Five Year Plan 2024-2029

Objectives

  • The objectives are aligned with Sustainable Development Goals (SDG’s) to ensure that developmental pursuits are impactful to foster sustainable development at a national level.
  • To improve regional connectivity and coherence through development of disaster resilient infrastructure including roads, bridges energy, etc.
  •  Capacity building of local government institutions for improvement in service delivery and mainstreaming civil society institution’s priorities with the local government.
  •  Improvement in education facilities to ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities.
  • Improvement in health facilities to ensure healthy lives and wellbeing of all at all ages and reduction in prevalence of stunting through improved nutrition.
  •  Development of information & communication technology (ICT) especially involving the private sector.
  • To increase employment opportunities through inclusive and sustainable industrialization and encouraging small & medium-sized private sector enterprises .
  • Promotion of community based responsible tourism and development/upgradation of tourist sites and allied facilities.
  •  Provision of affordable, & sustainable electricity supply by exploring renewable/alternate energy sources/hydel power.
  •  Achieve gender equality through economic, social & financial mainstreaming of women, youth and other vulnerable /specially able groups.
  •  Reduce Poverty and improve living standards through community based sustainable interventions capitalizing on potential local resources.
  •  Facilitate public private partnership in development process through simplification of procedure.
  • Minimization of climate change vulnerability and environmental degradation through mitigation and adaptation measures at community, organizational and policy level.

 (Region wise targets in major sector are given at Annexure-I)
Major Challenges

  • Major challenges of development in these areas include:
  • Widespread Poverty:
  • Risk: widespread rural poverty, growing inequalities and deteriorating human development indicators.
  • Mitigation: Generating economic opportunities through upskilling of local communities and business spread
  • Limited Infrastructure and Connectivity:
  • Risk: Poor infrastructure and limited connectivity can hinder economic development.
  • Mitigation: Prioritize investments in critical infrastructure such as roads, bridges, and communication networks. Enhance connectivity to improve access to markets and services.
  • Poor Health & Education facilities:
  • Risk: high stunting prevalence, inadequate health infrastructure, Low enrolment and high dropout of the children
  • Mitigation: Prioritizing investments for infrastructure development and training & capacity building for healthcare and education professionals
  •  Untapped natural resources
  • Risk: Lack of investment and natural resource degradation.
  • Mitigation: Promoting and incentivizing investments through PPPs model.
  •  Public Sector service delivery:
  • Risk: Capacity constraints and institutional weaknesses
  • Mitigation: Capacity building through institutional reforms and adopting E-Governance model.
  • Energy Crisis
  • Risk: Energy shortage and low evacuation
  • Mitigation: Construction of transmission lines, decreasing line losses and dependency on conventional energy sources.
  • Slow pace of industrialization:
  • Risk: Low levels of investment and lack of incentives for private sector involvement in the development process.
  • Mitigation: Promoting industrial development through incentives and involvement of private sector.

Program for 2024-29

Federal government is facilitating development efforts in special areas/regions, through federal PSDP one liner budget allocations are provided every year to finance ADPs of AJ&K,
GB and merged districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Moreover, Public Private Partnerships in development process will be encouraged through simplifying the procedures and formulating transparent policies and regulations that incentivize private sector participation in development process of special areas. The respective area governments formulate their
development priorities in accordance with their need/demand. The strategy to achieve the objective outlined in FYP, revolves around investments in key sectors to drive economic growth and advancing socio-economic development. These priority sectors have been outlined based on the economic potentials and development needs of the respective areas. Over the next five years, region wise, proposed priority areas/sectors for investment are as follows;

Azad Jammu & Kashmir
During next five years, the eight promising areas for targeted investment has been identified to generate state revenues and overall socio-economic development, which broadly include; (1) Transport and communication (2) Water and Hydropower (3) Tourism (4) Development of human resource and minerals (5) institutional reforms and improved public service infrastructure for businesses, trade and commerce (6) Social sectors’ development (7) Farming, livestock and horticulture (8) Information Technology for sustainable livelihood generation, e-trade and commerce. Following priority programs/ projects are aimed to be implemented;

  •  Construction of Mansehra-Muzaffarabad 26.6 KM expressway and MuzaffarabadMirpur-Mangla 175 KM Kashmir Highway for North-South integration.
  • Construction of access to market, major/ link roads/ bridges in remote & less areas, and implementation of public physical infrastructure and F projects to effectively engage with CPEC.
  • Construction of 35 MW Nagdar, 40 MW Dowarian, 22 MW Jagran IV, and 03 MW Phullawai hydel power projects in Neelum Valley.
  • Construction of multipurpose 26 Small/Mini Dams (Feasibility Study, Detail Designing, Cost estimates completed by consulting firm). A number of the feasibility studies are ready for investment on public private partnership basis or for private sector investment
  •  Construction of 190 KM long Tourism Development Corridor for socio-economic development that will be linked with the CPEC, which will lay down 1,450 km roads in the region.
  •  Construction of Leepa Tunnel 3.8 KM, to open Leepa Valley and Shaunter Tunnel to link with GB for promotion of tourism, trade and commerce.
  •  Special programme for employable skills in sectors of tourism, handicrafts and mineral/mining in under developed districts & valleys. Special programme to encourage and facilitate village guest houses/ home stay at potential tourist’s sites.
  •  To improve legal & regulatory frameworks and their implementation. Support to businesses/industries in widening their business base and integration into regional and global markets.
  •  Multi-Sector Development Package for Rehabilitation of Damaged Public Infrastructure and Socio-economic Development of Line of Control (LOC) Affected 5- KM Belt (Phase-II).
  • Provision of piped gas supply to Muzaffarabad capital city on the priority basis and
    to all main townships (in a phased manner).
  • Increase market-oriented skills training opportunities by upgrading TEVTA and introducing advanced technologies.
  • Enterprise development and investment in agriculture, livestock, asset creation, skill enhancement programme, micro financing focusing on targeted poverty alleviation and food security in rural areas.
  • Construction of 95 Km Canal from Jari outlet to Iftikharabad (Feasibility Study Completed) to promote food security and increase farm productivity.

Gilgit Baltistan

  • The six priority areas for development in Gilgit Baltistan, during 13th FYP period are; (1) Regional connectivity (2) Hydropower generation (3) Development of tourism (4) Mineral exploration (5) Information Technology (6) Social sectors’ development and (7) Human capital development. Following are the priority projects to be implemented.
  • Mega road projects for interregional connectivity such as Gilgit-Shandoor Road, Gilgit Shounter via AJK and inter provincial connectivity such as Darel and Tangir Express Ways, Shah-e- Nager will improve access and tourism in GB.
  • Hydro-power projects of 180 MW including 54 MW Attaabad HPP, 30 MW Ghawardi, 20 MW Shagarthang, and 30 MW Herpo.
  • Construction of Alternate KKH Bypass at Tatta Pani, Chillas, express way from Keris to Sailing (Shah e Hamdan), Ghanche to improve tourism in GB.
  •  Construction of adventure tourism center at Hunza and hospitality center at Shiger.
  •  In order to benefit from CPEC Fiber optic, broadband access will be provided to all villages and key tourist destinations. Remote areas will be linked to promote employment and tourism.
  •  E-commerce/e-learning centres in 50 key locations along the CPEC route. Furthermore, engaging/servicing over 600,000 individuals, 15,000 small and medium enterprises/businesses over five years.
  •  Leveraging mineral resources by providing geological data and fostering skills development in the sector. Through Public-Private Partnerships (PPP), the potential of the mineral sector will be harnessed.
  •  Sewerage System for Gilgit City is under implementation and a same nature project will be implemented at Skardu City. Integrated water supply and sanitation for all district headquarters including sewerage scheme for Divisional Headquarter Chillas.
  •  Improvement in diagnostic facilities and tele-health services will be established at district level to address the issues of HR and quality healthcare in far-flung areas.
  •  Establishing and functioning of a designated TVET authority and strengthening university/training linkages with industry and market for women. Technical and vocational training centres at district level to develop demand based employable skills in GB.

Merged Districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 

The priority investment areas for development in merged districts are; (1) Communication infrastructure (2) Social sectors’ development (3) Tourism (4) Industrial development & promotion of border trade (5) Agriculture & livestock (6) Minerals development and (7) Energy and power. The identified priority projects/interventions for next five years, are as follows;

  • Construction of Peshawar-Tirah-Orakzai-Parachinar road, Sararogha– Sarwaki roadSouth Waziristan upper-40 kms, Trans-NMD highway connecting all merged districts, Wana-Jandola road & Wana-Tank road-120 km, Pezu- Makeen-Manglotai Road-180 km – connecting DI Khan motorway with the NMDs.
  •  Road in Orakzai to connect coal extraction sites and population centers, Kurram alternate route to connect Kurram with Peshawar through Tirah & Orakzai, roads connecting district headquarter of South Waziristan upper to major population settlements, roads connecting Orakzai, Kurram & North Waziristan and PeshawarMomand-Bajaur-Timargara motorway- 4-lane.
  •  Fiber optic connectivity of 8 DHQs and 25 THQs and upgradation of infrastructure for police stations, jails and judicial complexes.
  •  Establishment of 25 higher secondary schools for girls in 25 THQs, establishment of working women hostels in 25 tehsils, Wana (Barwand) education city and solarization/upgradation of 8 DHQ and 25 THQ hospitals/ government schools.
  •  Establishment of 8 women technical skills training institutes, scholarships /Internship programs for graduates of technical/ vocational institutes further, loan financing windows of Bank of Khyber and Akhuwat for start-up and business upgradation.
  •  To improve emergency services in South Wazirastan (lower), Rescue 1122 center will also be established.
  •  Development of integrated tourism zones in district Orakzai & Kurram and GomalZam Dam as tourist destination.
  •  Establishment of new industrial estates in 8 NMDs, establishment of new border markets and city centers and custom stations at Bajaur, Mohmand, South Waziristan (Lower & Upper). For mineral development, geological survey will be carried out.
  • Agriculture transformation and promotion of olive in Bajaur, Khyber & Orakzai, Surveys/mapping for categorization of forests, Rainwater retention and aquifer recharge system in South Waziristan Mohmand, Irrigation Schemes in merged districts, Saffron cultivation in Orakzai District.
  •  Jabba and Barra Dam-Khyber District, Larazan Dam-Tank, Khan Meer Kalay DamOrakzai and 25 MW Tank-Zam Dam will be constructed.

Table-B INVESTMENT REQUIREMENTS (FY2024-29)

For the next five years, total estimated investment requirement for special areas AJ&K, GB and merged districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are given above. This amount will be spent in priority sectors identified in the FYP by the respective area governments. Further bifurcation of investment requirement is given in Table-B. The plan also caters the initiatives which will be helpful to promote cross regional collaboration such as construction of MansehraMuzzafarabad expressway which will connect AJK with KP. It will lead to improved infrastructure, trade, and tourism, benefiting both AJ&K and GB regions. The plan will ensure engagement of community, adaptability of the strategies to local contexts, and the collaboration among various stakeholders involved in the development process. It will focus on engagement of private sector and civil society in potential sectors e.g. power generation, tourism, gems/minerals and agriculture, etc. Further, the respective area governments will formulate plans in order to localize their targets of national FYP. The sector wise major benchmark and targets are given at Annexure-I.

Implementation Matrix
Merged Districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

Implementation Matrix
Merged Districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

Implementation Matrix
Merged Districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

Implementation Matrix
Gilgit Baltistan 

Implementation Matrix
Gilgit Baltistan

Implementation Matrix
Gilgit Baltistan

Implementation Matrix
Azad Jammu & Kashmir

Implementation Matrix
Azad Jammu & Kashmir

Implementation Matrix
Azad Jammu & Kashmir

Implementation Matrix
Azad Jammu & Kashmir

10.1 Disaster Management & Resilience for better
community development

Introduction:
Climate change is a significant global challenge, with devastating impacts on human wellbeing, economic development, and prosperity. Pakistan, despite contributing only a small percentage of global greenhouse gas emissions, is one of the most vulnerable countries to its impacts. According to NDMA, the 2022 floods in Pakistan inflicted around $14.8 billion in damages and $15.2 billion in economic losses, threatening to push nine million people into poverty. Climate risk projections for Pakistan show a temperature increase of 2.0°C to 4.1°C by 2080, with the most significant rises in northern Pakistan. The proportion of the population experiencing at least one heat wave annually is expected to surge from 7.8% in 2000 to 45.4% in 2080. 1 The government has established the Prime Minister’s Committee on Climate Change for strategic guidance and coordination of national and international climate change obligations. The government has revised the National Climate Change Policy and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in 2021 and launched the National Adaptation Plan in 2023, demonstrating its strong commitment to addressing climate change.

Review of 12th Plan 2018 – 2023

The 12th Five Year Plan of 2018-2023 aimed to improve forest cover, wildlife conservation, sanitation, clean drinking water access, and air pollution monitoring in Pakistan. However, some targets fell short due to lack of focused planning and ambiguous responsibilities. Despite these challenges, the government has made progress in climate governance, incorporating climate change initiatives into Public Sector Development Programmes and implementing the Paris Agreement Ratification, REDD+ preparedness project, and Pakistan’s Nationally Determined Contributions. 2 The Ministry of Climate Change has established a Climate Change Council, Authority, and Fund for sustainable research and development. Environmental restoration efforts include rehabilitation of nine irrigated plantation sites and amendments to the Forest Act 1927.

13th Five Year Plan (2024-29)
Sectoral Issues
Energy:

Pakistan’s heavy reliance on fossil fuels, particularly oil and natural gas, negatively impacts the environment and public health through greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution. While progress has been made with renewable energy sources like solar and wind power, their capacity remains limited. To diversify the energy mix and reduce reliance on fossil fuels, substantial investments in renewable energy infrastructure are crucial. Green hydrogen, produced using renewable energy, holds potential as a clean, sustainable energy source. However, Pakistan currently lacks a comprehensive policy framework and a national strategy for green hydrogen production, storage, and utilization. Developing a roadmap for its adoption could unlock opportunities for green hydrogen in industries and transportation. 

However, Pakistan faces significant infrastructure challenges in the generation, storage, and distribution of green hydrogen. Addressing these challenges requires considerable investment in storage solutions, distribution networks, and production facilities. Collaborations with international partners for technology transfer, along with intensified research and development efforts tailored to Pakistan’s context, are vital for bridging the technological gap and advancing green hydrogen as a key component of the country’s energy strategy.

Reorientation of PSDP for Climate & Carbon Finances:

To bolster Pakistan’s response to climate challenges and optimize the financing of development projects, a strategic shift is necessary within the Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) towards embracing climate and carbon finance. Historically, the nation’s development projects have heavily relied on fiscal revenues and international loans, largely overlooking the potential of concessional green finances. With the looming threat of climate-related events, air pollution, and environmental degradation predicted to slash Pakistan’s GDP by 18 to 20% by 2050, urgent action is warranted. An estimated total investment of USD 348 billion is required for an effective climate response from 2023 to 2030. Furthermore, the full implementation of Pakistan’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) demands an additional USD 7 to USD 14 billion/annum 4
.
Despite these substantial financial requirements, Pakistan’s engagement with available green financing has been modest. As of September 30, 2021, Pakistan has utilized only USD 132 million for twenty-five projects from the Global Environment Facility (GEF), against cumulative funding decisions totaling USD 20,197 million. Similarly, from the Green Climate Fund (GCF), which committed USD 11.4 billion for climate projects globally by the end of 2022, Pakistan has secured just USD 197 million for five projects. This contrasts with the GCF’s allocation of USD 13.9 billion for developing countries’ climate projections during 2024-27 5 Out of the GCF’s commitments, USD 755.8 million has been allocated for twelve climate projects, highlighting the tangible opportunities for impactful climate action. Significantly, the “Recharge Pakistan” project, representing Pakistan’s proactive engagement with the GCF, has been allocated USD 66 million in grant finance. This marks a critical step forward in Pakistan’s climate resilience efforts, with total GCF funding for Pakistan reaching USD 249 million 6
.
Pakistan needs to re-orient its PSDP towards maximizing climate finance opportunities by integrating concessional funds and unlocking private capital using innovative financial instruments. This strategic shift complements public expenditure on green projects and reduces financing costs by blending concessional and standard loans from development partners. This approach aims to align Pakistan’s development agenda with its climate resilience and sustainability goals, enabling a paradigm shift in the PSDP.

Data Governance:

Pakistan’s data governance, particularly in climate change and disaster-related information, is fragmented and inconsistency in data collection methodologies, formats, and quality control measures. To improve data accuracy, reliability, and comparability, standardized data collection methodologies and rigorous quality assurance processes are needed. The current lack of data exchange mechanisms among government bodies, academic institutions, and other parties hinders comprehensive analysis of disaster and climate change data. A centralized data repository would improve data sharing, foster collaboration, and facilitate knowledge exchange. Strengthening stakeholder capacity to efficiently collect, examine, and interpret data is crucial. Technical assistance and training on data management, analysis tools, and decision-making based on data are essential for better decision-making. Adopting standardized data formats, protocols, and interoperability frameworks is essential for seamless data integration and analysis, leading to more comprehensive evaluations and expedited decision-making.

Green Growth Strategy: 

Pakistan faces significant environmental challenges such as soil degradation, deforestation, and water scarcity, and a need to transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. Inefficiencies in urban waste management exacerbate pollution and hinder sustainable urban living. Limited accessibility to green finance hinders the advancement of environmentally friendly projects. A comprehensive green growth strategy is needed to leverage Pakistan’s unique position and potential benefits from a global transition to a greener economy. This strategy would require a robust policy and regulatory framework, supportive legislation, financial incentives, green taxation, and efficient resource management techniques. To overcome the financing gap for green investments, the strategy would emphasize the importance of improving access to green finance through the creation of specialized funds and financial mechanisms. The Green Growth Strategy aims to mitigate Pakistan’s immediate environmental and economic challenges while harnessing the opportunities presented by the global shift towards sustainable development.

Agriculture and Food Security:

A significant proportion of Pakistan’s population resides in environmentally challenging areas such as mountains, deserts, and coastal regions, facing issues of food security, malnutrition, and social deprivation. These areas are highly susceptible to natural calamities and disasters. The agricultural sector grapples with challenges induced by climate change, including a worrisome reduction in surface water for irrigation, depletion of underground water resources, pest infestations, diseases, land degradation, land segmentation, and environmental degradation. To adapt to climate-related risks such as droughts, floods, and rising temperatures, the agriculture sector must swiftly embrace new climate-resilient cultivars and promote climate-smart agricultural practices to ensure sustainable food security, climate mitigation and enhanced productivity potential.

Water:

Ninety-five percent of available water resources are consumed by irrigated agriculture, leaving a mere fraction for domestic and industrial purposes. Pakistan is approaching a water shortage that could jeopardize food security, with per capita surface water availability plummeting from 5,260 cubic meters per year in 1951 to around 1,000 cubic meters in 2021. Anticipated further declines may classify Pakistan as a “water scarce” country by 2030, let alone the water quality issues in various parts of the country 7 Altered weather patterns and unpredictable precipitation pose serious threats to sustainable water provision in terms of quality and quantity for domestic as well as irrigation purposes. Access to safe drinking water, particularly in rural areas as well as areas with contaminated water. Glacial lakes resulting from glacier retreat increase the risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF). Urgent efforts are required for water conservation, underground water recharge, and storage.

Efficient water usage and recycling (water treatment) are crucial to ensuring water availability. Watercourses are lined to reduce water losses.

Biodiversity and Ecosystem:

Climate change is expected to significantly impact tropical ecosystems, with rising temperatures and droughts disrupting wetlands and riverine systems, altering plant and animal populations, and increasing the risk of invasive species. Low agricultural productivity and population growth may also lead to unsustainable agricultural practices, resulting in increased deforestation, fires, and soil erosion. This, in turn, facilitates landslides, threatening human lives, infrastructures, and natural resources. Pakistan has lost 1.2 million hectares of tree cover between 1991 and 2020, a 25% decrease in national forest area. 8 To combat this, federal and provincial governments are aligning with the Bonn Challenge to enhance forest cover. The Federal Forestry Board is promoting sustainable forestry and wildlife management, supporting the 10 billion Tree Tsunami Programme, now called upscaling Green Pakistan Programme. Focusing on protected and conservation areas is crucial for biodiversity safeguarding. Assessing the impact of infrastructure development on
biodiversity status is essential. Developing a thorough road ecology plan and implementing a city biodiversity index are essential for fostering sustainable urban development. Incorporating road ecology and a city biodiversity index into urban planning can promote sustainability, enhance ecological resilience, and create healthier, more livable urban environments. Regular evaluation and adaptation are crucial for ensuring the continued success and relevance of these initiatives over time.

Forest:

Pakistan’s forest coverage is 5.01% of the total land area, with an annual deforestation rate of around 27,000 hectares. 9 This contributes to land degradation, biodiversity loss, and increased flash floods. The federal and provincial governments are planting billions of trees to align with the Bonn Challenge, aiming to bring 350 million hectares of deforested land under forest cover by 2030 globally. The government has reactivated the Federal Forestry Board to promote sustainable forestry practices and implement the Upscaling Green Pakistan Programme over the next five years. Pakistan’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) focus includes REDD+ and Forest Landscape Restoration, involving collaborations with the Ministry of Climate Change and Environmental Coordination, the International Union for Conservation of Nature, the International Centre for Mountain Development, FAO, WWF-Pakistan, and the United Nations Development Programme.

Wildlife: 

Wildlife in Pakistan is facing threats from habitat reduction, land use changes, climate change, and urbanization. Decreasing wetlands, declining wild animal species, and illegal trade contribute to the loss of wildlife. Lack of data and capacity gaps at the institutional level exacerbate the problem. Conservation efforts, including habitat restoration in the 13th Plan, are crucial. Key issues include illegal trade, unsustainable tourism, and limited species recovery initiatives. Strategic Environmental and Social Assessments are necessary for informed decisions on infrastructure development. Human-wildlife conflict is another challenge in safeguarding wildlife.

GHG emission:

Climate change is a significant risk factor, with Pakistan among the top 10 countries globally most affected by it. 10 The country’s low emissions do not diminish its vulnerability to natural disasters. In 2022, Pakistan’s total emissions were 499 million tons of CO2 equivalents, with the energy sector contributing 51%. The country plans to set a conditional target of a 50% reduction in emissions by 2030, with 15% from its own resources and 35% from international grant finance. This would require USD 101 billion for energy transition. Pakistan needs to strengthen its scientific and technical capacities to achieve these transition targets.

Air: 

Urbanization and industrialization contribute to escalating air pollution, with big cities exceeding safe particulate matter levels fourfold. This poses serious health risks, necessitating a global policy shift towards cleaner fuels, renewable energy, and nonpolluting vehicles by greening the cities. Issues like smog have also become a major threat to human health, especially in urban and peri urban areas. It requires collective planning and monitoring in urban centres to ensure priority for air quality and human health.

Noise Pollution: 

Urban residents in Pakistan grapple with severe noise pollution, impacting health and sleep. Critical noise levels, notably in Karachi, Islamabad, and Peshawar, far surpass recommended standards. Measures are needed to address this concerning issue. Major emphasis is required in ensuring SOPs development and policy implementation.

Solid Waste: 

According to the EPA, solid waste generation is 87,000 tons per week, mostly from major metropolitan areas, which is 12,428 tons per day 11 12. Presently, the government collects approximately 50% of the total waste generated, falling short of the recommended minimum of 75% for cities to maintain relative cleanliness. Rapidly increasing solid waste generation in various sectors necessitates urgent attention. The government’s current waste collection efforts fall short, leading to improper waste disposal and contributing to air pollution. Proper waste management, like segregation, incineration, recycling and the establishment of landfill sites, is essential. Trash into to cash models may be adopted and promoted. Involvement of the private sector in waste management as well as community based models may be considered.

Natural Disasters: 

Pakistan, a top-10 climate change-affected nation, faces recurrent crises: the 2005 earthquake (3.5 million affected), 2010 floods (20 million affected), and the 2008-2010 IDP crisis (4.2 million displaced). Despite past lessons, disaster management remains a challenge, as evident in the 2022 floods. The 2022 floods, the most severe in the country’s history, continue to have adverse effects. NDMA reports 90 calamity-hit districts, with 1,739 deaths, 12,867 injuries since June 14, 2022. Damages exceed USD 14.9 billion, with total losses at of about USD 15.2 billion. Estimated needs for resilient rehabilitation and reconstruction stand at USD 30.1 billion. 13 The 2005 earthquake caused 87,000 to 100,000 deaths, 138,000 injuries, and rendered 3.5 million homeless. Over 19,000 children died, mainly due to school collapses.

Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs):

All 17 SDGs are intertwined with climate change concerns, with SDG-13, 14, and 15 directly addressing climate-related issues. These goals emphasize combating climate change, conserving marine resources, and protecting terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity. Targets under Multilateral Environmental Agreements (MEAs) must be focused. 14 Gender Mainstreaming in Climate Change and Environment: The Gender Gap Report of the World Economic Form Forum of 2023 ranks Pakistan at 142 out of 146 countries. Gender gap analysis and mainstreaming for the involvement of women and the vulnerable is crucial. 15

Objectives
Clean Energy / Green Hydrogen:

  •  Develop a detailed national Green Hydrogen Strategy outlining key objectives, technological pathways, investment models, and regulatory frameworks to guide the development of the sector.
  •  Establish clear guidelines and incentives for public-private partnerships in green hydrogen projects, ensuring equitable local participation and benefits.
  •  Develop a dedicated regulatory framework for green hydrogen, addressing environmental standards, investment protection, incentives, and technology standards for the green hydrogen sector.
  • Foster international partnerships for technology transfer and conduct targeted research and development to adapt green hydrogen technologies to Pakistan’s context. Encourage local innovation through grants and incentives for R&D activities.
  •  Initiate pilot projects in strategic locations to demonstrate the feasibility and benefits of green hydrogen in the energy, transportation, and industrial sectors. Use these projects as a basis for scaling up national implementation and for practical learning.
  •  Climate Finance & Monetization of Carbon Credits:
  • Collaborate with the Public Private Partnership Authority (P3A) and other relevant stakeholders to identify and prepare a pipeline of climate-aligned projects. Provide comprehensive guidelines to project proponents on integrating climate finance and carbon credit generation.
  •  Explore and promote sustainable financing options, including bonds, insurance mechanisms, and blended finance models.
  •  Support the development and implementation of a robust Carbon Emission Trading Policy and related market mechanisms to effectively monetize carbon credits.
  •  Formulate and implement a National Climate Finance Strategy and a Disaster Risk Financing Strategy.
  •  Create a national platform to guide and support federal ministries, provincial departments, and the private sector in the preparation of green projects, accessing concessional finances, and monetizing carbon credits.
  •  Actively participate in international climate negotiations to strengthen partnerships, secure financial support, and learn from global best practices.
  •  Engage with global knowledge-sharing platforms to identify and leverage alternative sources of concessional finance, enhancing the country’s climate finance portfolio.
  • Funding for climate resilience projects, facilitate the generation of carbon credits, and explore additional revenue streams to support Pakistan’s climate goals.
  • Establish a robust system to monitor the implementation of international climate conventions and compile reports in line with the government of Pakistan’s commitments and targets.

Data Governance:

  • Establish a comprehensive, centralized data repository for climate change and disaster-related information in Pakistan, ensuring seamless access and integration for all stakeholders.
  •  Develop protocols and mechanisms for efficient data sharing between government agencies, research institutions, and relevant stakeholders, facilitating collaborative analysis and action.
  • Implement standardized methodologies, formats, and rigorous quality control measures to ensure consistency, accuracy, and comparability of climate and disasterrelated data.
  • Strengthen existing data governance frameworks and create policies promoting effective data management, secure sharing, and collaborative use for climate resilience planning and action.
  •  Provide stakeholders with comprehensive training and technical assistance on data management, analysis, visualization tools, and evidence-based decision-making.

Green Growth Strategy:

  • Develop and implement a comprehensive policy and regulatory framework that propels sustainable investments across diverse sectors.
  • Introduce and expand fiscal measures, including green taxation, and financial incentives, in a supportive regulatory environment to stimulate investments in green technologies and practices.
  •  Encourage the development and adoption of green building standards, energy efficient designs, and sustainable public transportation systems.
  •  Implement strategies and policies to transition towards a circular economy model that prioritizes waste reduction and resource optimization.
  •  Establish dedicated funds and financial mechanisms to facilitate and support green investments and initiatives.
  •  Encourage private sector participation in the green economy by offering financial incentives, such as tax breaks or subsidies, for investing in environmentally friendly projects.
  •  Foster collaboration with international partners to attract global green investment and leverage expertise in green finance.

Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation: 

  •  Conduct vulnerability assessments and implement adaptation and mitigation plans, including resilient infrastructure.
  •  Strengthen coastal protection, improve agriculture practices, and incentivize climate-smart practices.
  •  Modernize irrigation, develop a long-term agriculture growth strategy, and promote integrated watershed management.
  • Mainstream sustainable land management, improve water quality and quantity, efficient use and invest in coastal and marine resources protection.
  • Bolster climate-smart municipal services, leverage Nature-Based Solutions (NBSs) for climate risks, and develop financing instruments for green urbanization.
  • Enhance Climate Resilience through Disaster Emergency Preparedness, build workforce capacities, and invest in advanced hydromet and early-warning systems.
  • Strengthen disaster risk governance, invest in disaster risk reduction, and support vulnerable groups in Disaster Risk Management.
  • Design and implement environment and climate literacy programme through public, civil society, private sector and academic institutions, by establishing nature clubs of youth.
  • Implementation of National Climate Change Gender Action Plan (ccGAP) for the Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) sector
  • Prevent, control and manage Forest Fire to support Forest and Landscape Restoration (FLR).
  • Enhance green cover and renewable energy through nature-based solutions and Ecosystem-based Approach (EbA).
  • Biodiversity Safeguarding initiatives in critical biodiversity hotspots and habitats.\
  • Develop Payment for Ecosystem (PES) schemes and implement strategies for healthy mountain ecosystem to ensure sustainable flows downstream.
  • Promote nature based sustainable tourism for people livelihoods and healthy ecosystems
  • On the analogy of carbon credits, initiate work on biodiversity credits

Environmental Governance and Policy: 

  •  Strengthen legal frameworks for environmental protection, define roles for government agencies, promote transparency, develop mechanisms for monitoring environmental initiatives and coordinate international efforts.
  •  Pursue economic growth addressing climate challenges, integrate climate policy with national policies, and focus on pro-poor, gender-sensitive adaptation.
  •  Build climate-resilient infrastructure, develop climate-resilient agriculture and food systems, and accelerate policy coherence for UN Sustainable Development Goals.
  •  Facilitate effective use of national and the international financial opportunities and foster economic incentives for investment.
  •  Enhance awareness, skills, and institutional capacity, and promote tree plantation, conservation and sustainability.
  •  Undertake Strategic Environmental and Social Assessment (SESAs) of mega infrastructure projects.
  •  Implementation of National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan (NBSAP) developed by Ministry of Climate Change and Environmental Coordination and IUCN.
  •  Implementation of National Climate Change Gender Action Plan (ccGAP).
  •  For effective planning, coordination, management and financing of Protected Areas, establish National and Provincial Protected Areas Service.
  •  Designate and strengthen Terrestrial and Marine Protected Areas to achieve the targets of Agenda 2030.
  • Strengthen National and Provincial Coordinating bodies to enhance inter-provincial coordination.
  • Establish and strength Multi-lateral environment cell to monitor the implementation of MEAs and climate actions, at the MoCC&EC in coordination with technical support of multilateral and bilateral donors.
  • Make efforts to implement global standards of Nature-based Solutions (NbS) at national provincial levels. 
  • City Biodiversity Index self-assessment tool for cities to evaluate and monitor the progress of their biodiversity conservation efforts against their own individual baselines.

Climate Risk Screening of PSDP Projects:

  • Estimate climate expenditure for mitigation, adaptation, and benefits while using the uniform digital tools such as MRV as per the UNFCCC’s Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF)
  •  Establish baselines, align projects with climate commitments, and climate and gender proofing of PC-I to PC-V formats and templates.
  •  Integration of Environmental and Social Management System (ESMS).

Waste Management and Circular Economy: 

  • Preparation of projects for integrated solid waste management including scientific landfill sites, waste to energy plants etc.
  •  Engage the private sector to support waste management initiatives

13th FYP Targets
Table 1 outlines the targets of the 13th Plan.

Policies, Programmes and Initiatives 

The Pakistani government is committed to adopting sustainable and climate-resilient development strategies in its Five-Year Plan. The Climate-Public Investment Management Assessment (C-PIMA) is a key tool for evaluating institutions’ readiness and identifying gaps in Public Investment Management (PIM) due to climate change challenges. The government aims to develop robust frameworks for addressing climate-related risks in infrastructure investment and access vital climate finance. The C-PIMA will serve as a roadmap for reform actions and capacity development support from organizations like the IMF. It will also facilitate peer exchange and share experiences with countries facing similar challenges. Pakistan is envisioned as a trailblazer in climate-aware public investment management, fostering resilience and sustainability for future generations. The first national Climate Change Gender Action Plan (ccGAP) has been developed with support from the Green Climate Fund (GCF) and the Ministry of Climate Change and Environmental Coordination. Implementation of the ccGAP will contribute to meeting international obligations, national targets, and gender mainstreaming at both national and provincial levels, facilitating access to climate financing through the GCF and other global sources. Pakistan is proposing a $20 million Climate-Tech Fund of Funds Program to address the country’s climate crisis. The program will invest in 3-4 Pakistan-focused Venture Capital funds dedicated to climate-tech ventures, similar to the IFC’s WE-Fi program for female founders. The aim is to enhance existing clean-tech ventures and encourage green credentials. The program will benefit from established professionals’ expertise and provide capital, mentorship, strategic guidance, and access to talent and follow-on funding. The program aims to fund scalable businesses that reduce greenhouse gas emissions, contribute to Pakistan’s climate goals, and strengthen the country’s adaptation to climate change. The Planning Commission of Pakistan, with the support of relevant stakeholders aims to incorporate the establishment of the “Sustainable Finance Bureau (SFB)” in our Five-Year Plan—a transformative initiative to capture green financing and secure carbon credits. This strategic move aligns with our commitment to sustainable development, attracting investments that bolster economic resilience while contributing to global climate goals. The bureau stands as a testament to our dedication to a greener, more prosperous future for Pakistan and the world.

The 13th Plan aims to tackle environmental issues and achieve sustainable development goals by increasing forest cover from 5.01% to 6%, requiring significant investments from both public and private sectors. It also emphasizes forest fire prevention, control, and management to protect biodiversity. The plan also emphasizes strengthening management of protected and conserved areas under the IUCN Green List and enhancing water management through reservoir construction to recharge groundwater. Preserving wetlands, particularly the 19  designated Ramsar Sites, is identified as crucial for ecological and cultural conservation. Simultaneously, the plan is ambitious in its commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by up to 20%, aligning with international commitments and Vision 2025. However, financial constraints necessitate seeking international grants to cover the total abatement cost, estimated at US$40.0 billion, where SFB will play a crucial role. The Climate Resilient Urban Human Settlements Unit is a project aiming to create “Climate Resilient Safe & Sustainable Cities” through community-driven urbanization initiatives, external funding, and low-carbon, energy-efficient Action Plans. The initiative aims to transform urban-heat islands into “Climate Resilient Cities” in line with federal government commitments. The master plans of metropolitan cities will be updated with stakeholder engagement, ensuring renewable energy options, waste management, sustainable transport, and water management. The “Capacity Building on Water Quality Monitoring and SDG (6.1) Reporting” program aims to enhance the coordination capacity of the WASH Cell in addressing drinking water issues, strengthen monitoring of SDG-6.1 progress, improve human resources in water quality testing, and establish a national/provincial drinking water quality monitoring and surveillance management system, ensuring effective coordination and management of drinking water quality issues. Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) is enhancing its Early Warning System (EWS) to address climate change challenges. The “Modernization of Hydrometeor Services of PMD in Pakistan (MHSP)” project aims to modernize, digitize, and upgrade the existing hydrometeorological observatories network, aligning the department with contemporary needs and fulfilling its role as a national meteorological organization. Stakeholder engagement, including private sector and technical organizations, will expedite the process and ensure impactful reporting.
The plan aims to mitigate climate change by focusing on key sectors like energy and agriculture, developing technological packages for livestock, poultry, and crop sectors. It also addresses vehicular emissions by advocating for standardized standards, phasing out old vehicles, and promoting cleaner engines and hybrid vehicles. The National E-Vehicle Policy is set to replace 30% of vehicles by 2030, signaling a commitment to sustainable transportation.

The plan introduces policies to incentivize products with a lower carbon footprint, targeting urban air and noise pollution through coordinated interventions, strengthened regulatory frameworks, and public awareness campaigns. The “polluter pays” concept is explored as a means to fund climate change initiatives, with proposed taxes on petroleum products and plastics contributing to a climate change fund. Waste management is a key focus, with plans to establish new landfill sites and manage 80% of solid waste, particularly in major cities. Clean energy is prioritized, with a commitment to increasing its share in the energy mix. Net metering is extended and incentives are provided to encourage solar energy use. The plan envisions achieving up to 10% renewable energy by 2029. Research and development institutions are highlighted, with plans to involve faculty and students from top academic institutes and strengthen entities like the Global Climate Change Impact Studies Centre and the National Institute of Oceanography. Specialized organizations like IUCN, FAO, and WWF can support capacity building and convene key stakeholders for collective contributions. A data repository at the Planning and Development department at national and provincial levels is also emphasized for planning and reporting purposes.

Implementation Framework / Matrix

9.3. Disaster Management and Resilience for Better Community
Development
Introduction

In the modern world, economic development plans must address climate change challenges and natural capital management to be effective. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 2023 report emphasizes the interconnectedness of climate, ecosystems, biodiversity, and human societies, highlighting the importance of integrating climate change adaptation with human well-being and sustainable development. Pakistan, significantly impacted by climate change, ranks 5th in vulnerability and 8th in impact globally (German Watch, 2021). Over the past two decades, the country has faced severe natural disasters, such as flooding, heatwaves, and droughts, necessitating a balance between economic development and environmental protection. The 2022 floods, which submerged a third of Pakistan and affected 33 million people, underscored the urgent need for climate-resilient infrastructure and improved adaptation capacities. Effective strategic economic planning must prioritize adaptation and resilience to reduce vulnerabilities and enhance response to future disasters. This involves comprehensive adaptation planning and climate-resilient development with input from provinces and key stakeholders, positioning these issues as sustainable development priorities. The Pakistani government is committed to investing in disaster risk management, enhancing local systems and institutions, and improving technical and financial resources. By adopting a “building back better” approach, the government plans to collaborate with global development partners and local stakeholders to implement innovative measures, co-finance resilient recovery efforts, and achieve sustainable growth

Review 12th Five Year Plan (2018-23)

  • The government of Pakistan has taken several initiatives to combat climate and environmental challenges, however, the priority remains disaster management activities that aimed to mitigation, and post-disaster recovery issues. Under the 12th Five- Year Plan, various climate-centric initiatives were prioritized to improve climate governance structure and address climate-related extreme events, notably:
  •  Scaling up Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) risk reduction in northern Pakistan
  •  Integrated floodplains management
  •  Livelihood improvement of coastal communities of Balochistan
  • Conservation and restoration of the mangroves ecosystem
  • Improving research and development through institutional strengthening and developing an early warning system
  •  Improving coordination with provinces on the adoption and implementation of environmental policies and programs in the wake of devolution

13th Five Year Plan (2024-29) 

A recent study proposes that technological, social, organizational, and political innovation allows to better balance the need for sustainable economic growth and protect the natural environment. The management of natural capital and climate adaptation are central to achieving sustainable development and growth (IGC, 2023). This requires a radical reassessment of our national policies and planning, analyzing spending patterns under the Public Sector Development Program (PSDP), making projects prioritization and resource allocation based on evidence and learning from global best practices. Acknowledging the phenomenon of the ‘age of adaptation’, disaster risk management, adaptation planning and climate-resilient development would be a priority to protect people and the economy while moving towards national economic and sustainable development goals. The government aims to improve adaptive capacities and reduce vulnerabilities to climate-related extreme events aligned with strategies and guiding principles and initiatives proposed in Sendai Framework 2015 – 2030, Resilient Recovery, Rehabilitation, and Reconstruction Framework (4RF), National Adaptation Plan 2023, and the Living Indus initiative. The 13th Five- Year Plan has a special focus on addressing climate-related challenges, protecting people and communities in vulnerable to socio-economic and environmental situations, reducing exposure and vulnerability to climate related extreme events, and achieving sustainable economic growth by adopting innovation, adaptation planning, and allocating funds based on evidence and learning.

Sectoral Issues
‘The Age of Adaptation’

The climate challenge is indeed one of the most pressing issues humanity faces. Despite the ambitious goals and promises that emerged from previous COPs, scientific data suggest that it is nearly impossible to meet the Paris Agreement targets. A country like Pakistan and people in the developing world are left with no choice but to learn how to live with and respond better to climate change – adaptation. Pakistan is characterized by diverse topography, ecosystems, and climate zones. The majority of Pakistan’s population 216.5 million people (2019) live along the Indus River, an area prone to severe flooding in July and August, and frequent earthquakes in the mountainous northern and western regions. Common people are well aware of climate impacts that have high potential to turn into a national-scale catastrophe – such as flooding in 2010, and 2022. The single biggest challenge in the 13th Five- Year Plan would be adaptation planning with a focus on water – to address related issues such as floods, droughts, and food security among others (Najam, 2019; ADB, 2021). 

Floods 2010

The 2010 super flood along the Indus river caused extensive damages of US$10 billion, marking it a massive calamity the country had experienced. Subsequent flood events in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014 further intensified concerns about the perceived notion and impacts of global warming and climate change. These recurring events highlighted the insufficiency of the national adaptation capacity and the inefficacy of traditional approaches in flood control, management, and damage mitigation. The collective experiences from these incidents prompted the conceptualization of an integrated flood management approach, emphasizing a combination of structural and non-structural measures. In response, the National Flood Protection Plan – IV was devised, aiming to enhance nationwide comprehensive flood management planning, implementation, monitoring, and improve the capacity of the Federal Flood Commission (GoP, 2019). Despite these efforts, the country’s preparation proved insufficient to face the loss and damages brought by the 2022 floods, impacting human lives, livestock, agriculture, and critical infrastructure nationwide – particularly in Sindh and Balochistan.

Floods 2022

Though Pakistan has a history of recurring natural calamities, notably, the devastating floods of 2010, the 2022 floods surpassed the scale of loss and damage of the 2010 floods. It was recognized as a natural calamity of an unprecedented scale that severely affected Pakistan’s social and physical infrastructure and had a great humanitarian toll as around 33 million people were affected, including nearly 8 million people displaced across 94 districts, and it claimed over 1,700 lives. This disastrous event destroyed millions of houses, damaged social and physical infrastructure while submerging entire villages particularly, Sindh and Balochistan were hit the hardest; it inundated agricultural lands, swiped crops, and perished livestock, pushed around 9 million into poverty – reversing national efforts of poverty alleviation and sustainable development. The direct and indirect damage caused by the floods has been estimated as US $30 billion with a macroeconomic impact of around 2% of the GDP in FY 2022-23 (GoP, 2022a, 2022b).

Key Constraints
Financing Resilient Recovery and Adaptation

The world has acknowledged the massive scale and wider impacts of the 2022 devastation, the country has received substantial support during the Geneva Conference on Climate Resilient Pakistan. The global community pledged a total of US$ 10,987.01 million, exhibiting their commitment to support post-flood recovery and reconstruction efforts. However, there still exists a huge financing gap, considering the needs assessed and the available funding.

Table 1: Damage, Loss, and Needs by Region (GoP, 2022b)

Note: All estimates were calculated in PKR and converted to US$ prior to rounding (US$1 = 214.8 PKR on average). The costs ar e initial estimates and variances may exist due to limitations such as data access on account of ongoing flooding and lack of baseline information.

The Resilient Recovery, Rehabilitation, and Reconstruction Framework (4RF), a strategic level document that is built on the findings of Post Disaster Need Assessment (PDNA) for an overall recovery of Pakistan, reported that resilient recovery requires US$ 16,260 Million to address needs in various sectors further defined through four Strategic Recovery Objectives
(GoP, 2022a, 2022b). Despite the loss and damage incurred due to a natural calamity, which has been widely recognized, most of the funds provided to the country are in the form of loans and a meagre portion through off-budget grants. Due to financial constraints, most of the local and development partner’s financing was allocated and spent on recovery and reconstruction work. There is a need for disaster risk management and resilient development planning where funds should be allocated and spent to reduce exposure and vulnerabilities of communities through adaptation planning (Najam, 2019). Besides this, strategic recovery objectives (SROs) as outlined in the Resilient Recovery, Rehabilitation, and Reconstruction Framework (4RF), notably governance and institutional capacity building, livelihoods and economic opportunities, and social inclusion, remain under-invested due to insufficient funds – against the projected cost estimated for resilient recovery. The country is planning to mobilize financing from diverse channels as well as through local sources to meet long-term resilience and adaptation planning needs.

Table 2: Summary of Resilient Recovery (GoP, 2022b).

Exploring Innovative Financing Mechanisms

The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction highlights that it is imperative to address existing challenges and prepare for the future by strengthening disaster risk governance and coordination across relevant institutions, with meaningful participation of stakeholders, especially development partners who play a vital role in consultation and financing climate resilient development (UNDRR, 2015). The financing strategy as proposed under the Resilient Recovery, Rehabilitation, and Reconstruction Framework (4RF), Pakistan has strategized that 30% of the total 4RF financing will be sourced from the local funds through Public Sector Development Program (PSDP) and Annual Development Program (ADP). Currently, an amount of US$441.32 million has been secured through internal funds – the federal Public Sector Development Program and provincial Annual Development Planning (GoP, 2022b). Additionally, the country is also mobilizing finance under the public-private partnership (PPP) arrangements. There are potential financing opportunities from local and global channels and the government is actively navigating various sources to realize investment and aims to achieve up to 15% financing specifically for post 2022 flood projects through multiple projects in FY 2023-24. Notably, a physical infrastructure project “Sialkot – Kharian Motorway Project”, worth PKR 27 Billion shall be financed through public-private partnership modality.

Institutional Capacities 

The 2022 flooding in Pakistan exposed a critical capacity gap about adaptation planning. Recognizing the urgent need, the country aims to cultivate a pool of skilled human resources capable of comprehending the intricacies of climate adaptation, planning and financing through climate finance mechanisms. Recent advancements have seen the formulation of key policy documents such as the National Adaptation Plan, Living Indus, and Resilient Recovery, Rehabilitation, and Reconstruction Framework (4RF). These strategic guiding documents aim to bridge the knowledge gap, providing a foundation for robust climate adaptation initiatives. There remains a crucial need to strengthen institutional capacities, facilitating the effective implementation and monitoring of such initiatives. Strengthening institutional capabilities is paramount to ensuring the successful execution of adaptation plans and resource allocation for long-term resilience.

Data and Knowledge Gaps

The availability and accuracy of data are fundamental to effective planning, community-level preparation, and timely response to reduce loss and damages and avoid causalities, particularly in the face of natural disasters. The 2022 torrential floods has exposed a critical gap in the existing data infrastructure and warning system. Recognizing the intrinsic link between data quality and informed decision-making, 13th Five-Year Plan will emphasis on enhance data collection mechanisms, ensuring the availability of reliable data, and adopting innovative technological solutions such as NATCAT Risk Calculator to generate evidence for planning and public investment decisions, and implementing adaptive measures in the wake of climatic challenges.

Objectives

  • The 13th Five-Year Plan is aligned with the National Adaptation Plan, and the Sendai Framework aims to improve and build adaptation capacity, as well as expedite recovery, rehabilitation, and reconstruction efforts guided by Resilient Recovery, Rehabilitation, and Reconstruction Framework (4RF). Guided by policy documents, the government has set strategic recovery objectives (SROs) aims to build resilient communities and achieve sustainable development (GoP, 2022b; GoP 2023).
  •  Mainstream climate adaptation across federal, provincial, and local governments
  •  Build resilience of vulnerable communities, reduce exposure and vulnerabilities to climate related extreme events
  •  Enhance governance and the capacities of the state institutions
  •  Restore lives and livelihoods, ensure social inclusion and participation in economic opportunities; engage local communities – affected people especially the most vulnerable, build their capacities in adopting nature based solutions to manage risks- disaster emergency preparedness and response
  •  Improve basic services and physical infrastructure in a resilient and sustainable manner

Targets

To achieve objectives that revolve around the Resilient Recovery, Rehabilitation, and Reconstruction Framework (4RF), National Adaptation Plan, and the Living Indus Initiative, 13th Five-Year Plan set the following targets.

Area / Sector 

Integrate adaptation into Development Plans across federal, provincial, and local governments
– Implement land regulation to bolster resilient service provision
Community-based adaptation: Engage local communities, build their capacities in adopting nature based solutions to manage risks
– Adopt climate-smart municipal services

Disaster emergency preparedness and response to disasters – review periodic update on preparedness.
– Strengthen the capacities of local authorities
– Build and strengthen people-centered multi-hazard multi-sectoral early warning systems, disaster risk and emergency communication mechanisms. Improve public investment decisions and land-use planning
– Investment in Climate-Resilient Infrastructure including water, transportation, telecommunications, health and other facilities – build back better.
Adopt innovative technological tools
– Enhance data infrastructure and knowledge management

Policy Interventions and Priorities – Build Back Better

Programs and Initiatives for Long-term Resilience

Table 3: Programs and Initiatives (GoP, 2022b).
Implementation Framework

The implementation framework for resilient recovery is guided by the 4RF, draws upon the successful recovery experiences from Pakistan’s past disasters, and places a strong emphasis on utilizing existing government institutions. The institutional arrangements are designed with a multi-tiered approach, where the federal government will lead the overall coordination, and policy formulation efforts; provinces and local governments will play a primary role in implementing the recovery and reconstruction programs. Further, the implementation framework proposes a single point of coordination and management at the Federal Recovery and Reconstruction Unit (RRU) – that will be instrumental in project execution, ensures the alignment of resources, leveraging the strengths and capacities, enabling a coordinated and timely response. Given the urgent needs, the government has established a Federal Steering Committee for coordination, and Policy and Strategy Committee for providing strategic direction (GoP, 2022b). 

Table 5: Institutional Arrangements (GoP, 2022b).